When it comes to movies, the Oscars are the gold standard, so predicting who will win the Academy Awards in 2022 is a serious undertaking.
The first Oscars was held in 1929, and it is also the most prestigious; additionally, it occurs at the end of the annual awards season, which means Oscar predictions require complex math that takes into account who has already won the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Independent Spirit Awards, and other prestigious awards. For nearly a century, however, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has bestowed the most prized and well-known of all film awards: the Academy Award, also known as the Oscar.
The awards season has returned! The telecast’s announcer used the exclamation mark to build anticipation for a ceremony that returned to being an in-person event on Sunday, a year after its winners were announced. Prerecorded acceptance speeches zoomed in.
Some of Hollywood’s top names, like Kristen Stewart, Andrew Garfield, Will Smith, and Nicole Kidman, have been nominated for the prestigious Oscars. West Side Story, King Richard, Encanto, Being the Ricardos, and Dune all received many nominations, with The Power of the Dog receiving the most with 12.
Every year, there are frontrunners in each Oscars category. When this year’s winners are announced on March 27, spectators — as well as the nominees themselves — may be surprised. Check out HollywoodLife’s Oscar predictions for the key categories in 2022, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, and more.
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
PROJECTED WINNER: The Power of the Dog
Jane Campion’s Dog had the most nominations of any film this year, with a total of 12 bones. While the slow-burning western psychodrama enjoys widespread support from the Academy’s many branches, many analysts have speculated that its highbrow appeal may not be enough to sustain the flood of enthusiasm brewing for other films. Emotionally accessible films like the unexpected ACE Eddie winner King Richard and the uplifting, Screen Actors Guild Awards Ensemble-winning CODA are pecking at Dog’s spurred heels.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Benedict Cumberbatch be able to ride the surge of nominations for The Power of the Dog to a win? His portrayal as a mocking, macho cattle magnate with a soft, tender core, the kind of character that people love to despise, was warmly praised. But it was Javier Bardem who stole the show in Being the Ricardos, bringing to life Desi Arnaz, the entrepreneur husband and partner of pioneering comic Lucille Ball. Will Smith, who has yet to win an Oscar despite two previous nominations in this category, was as smooth as a flawless backhand return as the tennis-guru father who groomed his racket-prodigy children to rule the court in King Richard.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
PROJECTED WINNER: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
As historic as Campion’s first Best Director Oscar win would be (women have never won this category two years in a row), you can’t blame the New Zealand-born filmmaker’s impending victory on hive mind politics; her style is ingrained in the smoldering western’s DNA, from its subtly momentous screenplay to the unsettling, pointed silence that runs through every frame. Campion’s name is synonymous with the film for the Academy, as it is for the rest of the industry, and voters may find it difficult to distinguish the two when voting for both Best Picture and the woman who sewed it all together (to the tune of a twelve total nods) in Best Director.
Best Lead Actress
Projected Winner: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
SAG and the academy have matched in 19 of the last 27 years. In 2021, Viola Davis won for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” but Frances McDormand won her third Oscar for “Nomadland.”
Is history going to repeat itself? Probably not, if only because the contest for lead actress this year is so wide spread. Anyone has a chance to win. (Well, except for Lady Gaga.) She had not been nominated.) But I believe Chastain, like her fellow Oscar nominees Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”), Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”), Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”), and Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”), has a good chance of winning.
Chastain fulfills all of the requirements. She plays a pivotal role in the story, She can sing! and She has a distinctly Minnesotan lilt to her voice! And, perhaps most importantly, she helps us like — or at least recognize — televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker. She goes beyond just giving an impression or a caricature.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
PROJECTED WINNER: Will Smith, King Richard
After weighing in every key indicator on the campaign trail, the Hollywood royal atop King Richard’s throne will eventually, and justifiably, receive his crown. Will Smith hasn’t missed a beat along the way, and SAG’s affirmation that the unsung hero who’s seamlessly transitioned from blockbusters to heart-wrenching prestige fare is, at long last, bound for the Academy’s gilded court comes as no surprise.
Best Animated Feature Film
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells Vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
PROJECTED WINNER: Encanto
Flee is a mature, innovatively animated documentary about an Afghan immigrant who recounts his journey to Denmark. In its lively tale of a family striving to preserve the Earth from a tech takeover, The Mitchells vs. The Machines, a sci-fi comedy, uses a genre-bending blend of 2D and 3D technology. The House of Mouse, on the other hand, leads this category, with three nominees from Disney (Encanto, Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon)
Encanto, the charming, song-filled tale of a multi-generational Colombian family with music by Lin-Manuel Miranda, appears to be a shoe-in for the 2022 Oscars, with additional nominations for Score and Original Song, marking the first time in a decade, since Toy Story 3, that an animated film has been recognized in three or more categories (and Toy Story 3 brought home two Oscars that night). So far, things are looking good for Encanto, and a win would be another proof that the Academy Awards are taking steps to recognize diversity, which has been a scourge of film awards—and Hollywood—for decades.
Also Read: 10 Movies With Beautiful Cinematography